Diplomatic Fallout, Economic Consequences, and Geopolitical Implications of Turkey's Support for Pakistan
India's diplomatic and economic ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan have deteriorated dramatically following their public backing of Pakistan during India's recent counter-terrorism campaign. The growing crisis reveals the complex interplay of regional alliances, military technology transfers, and economic interdependence in South Asia's volatile geopolitical landscape.
The Flashpoint: Operation Sindoor
On May 8-10, 2025, India launched "Operation Sindoor," a precise aerial counter-terrorism operation targeting Pakistani bases allegedly harboring militants responsible for the earlier Pahalgam attack. The operation marked a significant escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
According to the source material, the Indian Air Force conducted precision strikes against terrorist infrastructure without crossing the Line of Control, successfully neutralizing key targets while bypassing advanced Chinese-supplied defense systems. What made this operation particularly notable was that it came in response to Pakistan's prior use of drone technology against Indian targets.
Pakistan had earlier used approximately 400 drones—predominantly Turkish-made models—against both civilian and military targets in Punjab and Kashmir. Intelligence reports cited in the source material indicate Turkey provided more than 350 unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) to Pakistan, including Asisguard Songar and Bayraktar TB2 models. More concerning, sources claim Turkish military advisors and drone operators were embedded with Pakistani forces during the attacks—a charge that has inflamed public sentiment across India.
India's External Affairs Ministry publicly condemned the use of civilian airliners as shields in those incursions, highlighting serious violations of international norms.
Turkey and Azerbaijan's Stance
Both Turkey and Azerbaijan issued statements supporting Pakistan's position following Operation Sindoor, which has led to the current diplomatic strain with India. This support comes against the backdrop of Turkey's expanding defense cooperation with Pakistan, which has increasingly worried Indian security planners.
Economic Backlash: The Trade Dimension
India's response to Turkey and Azerbaijan's support for Pakistan has been swift and multifaceted. While official government sanctions have not yet been announced, sources indicate that Indian authorities are considering suspending up to $10 billion in bilateral trade with Turkey. This would impact approximately 1.5% of India's global export market of $437 billion.
Trade figures from the source material highlight the economic stakes involved:
- India's exports to Turkey from April 2024 to February 2025 totaled $5.2 billion, down from $6.65 billion the previous year
- Imports from Turkey during the same period amounted to $2.84 billion, a decrease from $3.78 billion
- India's exports to Azerbaijan were comparatively modest at $86 million
More immediately impactful has been the grassroots boycott movement that has swept across Indian business communities. In Udaipur, the Marble Processors Committee announced the suspension of Rs 3,000 crore (approximately $360 million) worth of marble imports from Turkey, which reportedly constitutes 70% of the city's supply. Similarly, truck operators in Indore have pledged to refuse transportation of Turkish and Azerbaijani cargo, adopting a "nation first" stance.
Political parties have joined the backlash, with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra demanding the expulsion of a Turkish firm from Mumbai's airport, citing security concerns over Ankara's military cooperation with Pakistan.
Tourism in Freefall
Perhaps the most immediately visible economic impact has been in tourism flows between the countries. Turkey and Azerbaijan have emerged as popular destinations for Indian travelers in recent years:
- Approximately 330,000 Indians visited Turkey in 2024, spending between $350-400 million
- Around 240,000 Indians traveled to Azerbaijan in the same period
- Indian tourists typically spent Rs 2.9-3.35 lakh ($3,500-4,000) per trip to Turkey and Rs 1-1.25 lakh ($1,200-1,500) for Azerbaijan
Since Operation Sindoor and the subsequent diplomatic fallout, travel booking platforms have reported a dramatic 60% drop in new reservations and a 250% increase in cancellations for both destinations. MakeMyTrip, a major online travel company, has seen Turkey bookings decline by 60% over the past week, while EaseMyTrip reports 22% cancellations for Turkey and 30% for Azerbaijan.
Travel industry reports cited in the source material note that Indian tourists are pivoting to alternative destinations like Georgia, Greece, and Vietnam.
Despite these trends, cancellation requests constitute less than 5% of all trips planned between May and July, suggesting potential for recovery if tensions ease in the coming months.
Aviation Industry Under Pressure
India's aviation sector faces compounded challenges from the current crisis. Pakistan's closure of its western airspace following Operation Sindoor has forced carriers to reroute flights to Europe and North America, resulting in longer flight paths, increased fuel consumption, and extended travel times.
Simultaneously, security concerns led to the temporary suspension of operations at 32 airports across Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab, further constraining capacity and regional connectivity. This "double whammy" has particularly affected IndiGo, India's largest carrier, which operates two daily flights to Istanbul (from Delhi and Mumbai) and remains the sole direct operator between Delhi and Baku.
Despite calls for boycotts, IndiGo has maintained these routes, citing operational commitments.
Corporate Exposure and Market Implications
Several publicly listed Indian companies have significant business interests in Turkey, exposing them to potential financial impact from the ongoing tensions:
Jubilant FoodWorks, which operates Domino's Pizza and Coffy chains in India, has over 900 outlets in Turkey through DP Eurasia NV. The company's shares dipped 2% on boycott fears, though management has asserted that local operations remain relatively insulated from political shifts.
Polyplex, a manufacturer, operates a production plant in Turkey that contributes approximately 6% of its consolidated revenue. The company could face challenges if trade restrictions persist.
Other sectors with exposure include hospitality firms, apparel companies, and automotive parts manufacturers with connections to these markets.
India's benchmark Nifty index has largely shrugged off the geopolitical tensions, recently regaining the 25,000 mark on optimism surrounding corporate earnings and macroeconomic stability.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the path to normalization remains uncertain. Historical boycotts—such as the swift tourist boycott of the Maldives—have tended to be short-lived, often fading within months of de-escalation. However, the military dimension of the current crisis suggests a potentially more protracted chill in relations.
For investors and policymakers, key variables to monitor include:
- Official Indian government announcements regarding formal trade restrictions
- Real-time tourism booking data from major platforms
- Corporate earnings reports from companies with Turkish exposure
- Flight scheduling decisions by carriers like IndiGo
As the situation continues to develop, businesses, travelers, and diplomatic observers worldwide will be watching closely to see whether this represents a temporary rupture or a fundamental realignment in India's relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
This article was based on reporting from multiple sources, including The Times of India, Economic Times, India Today, Reuters, Moneycontrol, and Business Standard. Market and economic data were accurate as of May 15, 2025.
Post a Comment